경제붕괴가 임박했음을 보여주는 5개의 차트

5 Charts Which Show That The Next Economic Crash Is Dead Ahead Posted on April 7, 2015 by The Doc   When an economic crisis is coming, there are usually certain indicators that appear in advance. For example, commodity prices usually start to plunge before a recession begins.  And as you can see from the Bloomberg Commodity Index which you can find right here, this has already been happening.  In addition, I have previously written about how the U.S. dollar went on a great run just before the financial collapse of 2008.  This is something that has also been happening over the past few months.  Some people would have you believe that nobody can anticipate the next great economic downturn and that to try to do so is just an exercise in “guesswork”.  But that is not the case at all.  We can look back over history and see patterns that keep repeating.  And many of the exact same patterns that happened just before previous stock market crashes are happening again right now.    경제 위기가 올 때, 보통 어떤 지표가 미리 나타난다.  예를 들면 경기침체가 시작되기 전에 보통 상품가격이 급락하기 시작한다. 블룸버그 상품 지수를 보면 이 현상이 이미 발생하고 있음을 알 수 있다. 2008년 금융 붕괴 바로 전에 계속해서 달러가 크게 상승해왔다고 이전에 쓴 바 있는데 , 지난 몇개월동안 달러가 그러했다.  어떤 사람들은 이를 그저 단순한 예측에 불과하다고 말할지도 모르지만 역사를 되돌아보면 반복되는 똑같은 패턴을 볼 수 있다. 지난 주식시장 붕괴 바로 전에 나타났던 똑같은 패턴이, 바로 지금 다시 나타나고 있다. From The Economic Collapse Blog: For example, let’s talk about the price of oil.  There are only two times in history when the price of oil has fallen by more than 50 dollars in a six month time period.  one was just before the financial crisis in 2008, and the other has just happened… 예를  들어 원유가격을 보자. 6개월의 단기에 50달러 이상 원유가격이 떨어진 것은 역사상 오직 두번 뿐이었다. 하나는 2008년 금융위기 바로 전이었고,  지금이 그렇다. As a result of crashing oil prices, we are witnessing oil rigs shut down in the United States at a blistering pace.  In fact, almost half of all oil rigs in the U.S. have already shut down.  The following commentary and chart come from Wolf Richter… 급락하는 원유 가격 때문에 미국 내 석유굴착장치가  빠른 속도로 문을 닫고 있다.사실상 미국내의 거의 반수에 달하는 석유굴착장치가 이미 문을 닫았다. In the latest week, drillers idled another 41 oil rigs, according to Baker Hughes. only 825 rigs were still active, down 48.7% from October. In the 23 weeks since, drillers have idled 784 oil rigs, the steepest, deepest cliff-dive in the history of the data: We are looking at a full-blown fracking bust, and this bust is already having a dramatic impact on the economies of states that are heavily dependent on the energy industry. 우리는 프랙킹공법(세일석유시추공법)의 파산사태를 보고있다. 그리고 이 파산사태는 에너지산업에 의존하고 있는 주(洲)들의 경제에 극적인 영향을 이미 주고 있다. For example, just check out the disturbing number that just came out of Texas… The crash in oil prices is hammering the Texas economy. The latest manufacturing outlook index from the Dallas Fed plunged again in March, to -17.4 from -11.2 in February, indicating deteriorating business conditions in the state. Ouch. But this pain is going to be felt far beyond Texas.  In recent years, Wall Street banks have made a massive amount of money packaging up energy industry loans, bonds, etc. and selling them off to investors. 하지만 이 고통은 텍사스를 넘어서도 느껴지고 있다.  최근 몇해에 월가 은행들은 대량의 에너지 산업 대출과 채권을 패키지로 묶어 투자자들한테 팔아치워왔다. If that sounds similar to the kind of behavior that preceded the subprime mortgage meltdown, that is because it is. 이것이 서브프라임 모기지 붕괴 전에 있었던 행태와 비슷하게 들린다면, 그것은 아래 때문이다. Now those loans, bonds, etc. are going bad as the fracking bust intensifies, and whoever is left holding all of this worthless paper at the end of the day is going to lose an extraordinary amount of money.  Here is more from Wolf Richter… 이제 그들 대출과 채권 등은 프랙킹산업의 파산이 심화됨에 따라 악화되고 있다. 이 모든 가치없는 종이쪽을 "그 날" 마지막에 가지고 있는 사람들은 누구라도 엄청난 량의 돈을 잃게 될 것이다.  It suited Wall Street just fine: according to Dealogic, banks extracted $31 billion in fees from the US oil and gas industry and its investors over the past five years by handling IPOs, spin-offs, “leveraged-loan” transactions, the sale of bonds and junk bonds, and M&A. That’s $6 billion in fees per year! Over the last four years, these banks made over $4 billion in fees on just “leveraged loans.” These loans to over-indebted, junk-rated companies soared from about $40 billion in 2009 to $210 billion in 2014 before it came to a screeching halt. For Wall Street it doesn’t matter what happens to these junk bonds and leveraged loans after they’ve been moved on to mutual funds where they can decompose sight-unseen. And it doesn’t matter to Wall Street what happens to leverage loans after they’ve been repackaged into highly rated Collateralized Loan Obligations that are then sold to others. At the same time, we are also witnessing a slowdown in global trade.  This usually happens when economic conditions are about to turn sour, and that is why it is so alarming that the total volume of global trade in January was down 1.4 percent from December.  According to Tyler Durden of Zero Hedge, that was the largest drop since 2011… 동시에 우리는 세계무역의 둔화를 또한 보고있다. 이는 경제적 조건들이 안좋아지기 시작할때  보통 나타난다. 그래서 1월의 세계무역 총량이 12월에 비해 1.4%가 감소한 것이 놀라운 소식인 이유이다. 2011년 이래 최대폭의 감소였다. Presenting the latest data from the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, according to which in January world trade by volume dropped by a whopping 1.4% from December: the biggest drop since 2011! We are seeing some troubling signs in the U.S. as well. 우리는 미국 내에서도 몇몇 문제의 징조를 보고있다. I shared the following chart in a previous article, but it bears repeating.  It comes from Charles Hugh Smith, and it shows that new orders for consumer goods are falling at a rate not seen since the last recession… 이전 기사에서도 아래 차트를 보여주었지만, 다시 한번 볼만하다.  마지막  경기침체 이후 본 적 없는 속도로 소비재의 신규주문이 줄고 있다는 것을 보여준다. Well, what about the stock market?  It was up more than 200 points on Monday.  Isn’t that good news? 주식시장은 어떤가? 월요일에 200포인트 이상 올랐다. 좋은 뉴스이지 않은가? Yes, but the euphoria on Wall Street will not last for long. 그렇다, 하지만 월가의 행복은 오래 지속되지 못할 것이다. When corporate earnings per share either start flattening out or start to decline, that is a huge red flag.  We saw this just prior to the stock market crash of 2008, and it is happening again right now.  The following commentary and chart come from Phoenix Capital Research… 기업의 주당(株當) 수익(EPS)이 늘어나지 않거나 하락하기 시작할 때, 그것은 위험을 알리는 엄청난 신호다. 우리는 이를 2008년 주식시장 붕괴 바로 직전에 보았다. 그리고 그것은 지금 바로 다시 나타나고 있다. Take a look at the below chart showing current stock levels and changes in forward Earnings Per Share (EPS). Note, in particular how divergences between EPS and stocks tend to play out (hint look at 2007-2008). We all know what came next. And guess what? 뭐라고 생각하나? According to CNBC, a lot of the “smart money” is pulling their money out of the stock market right now while the getting is good… CNBC에 따르면,  스마트 머니(전문적인 지식을 갖고 투자・투기한 돈)는 주식시장에서 그들의 돈을 빼내고 있다. 반면에... Recent market volatility has sent stock market investors rushing for the exits and into cash. 최근의 시장의 변동성은 투자자들이 출구를 찾아 현금보유로 달려가게하고 있다.  Outflows from equity-based funds in 2015 have reached their highest level since 2009, thanks to a seesaw market that has come under pressure from weak economic data, a stronger dollar and the the prospect of monetary tightening. 2015년의 주식 기반 펀드의 유출량은 2009년 이래 최고수준에 도달했다. Funds that invest in stocks have seen $44 billion in outflows, or redemptions, year to date, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Equity funds have seen outflows in five of the last six weeks, including $6.1 billion in just the last week. 메릴린치은행에 따르면, 주식에 투자하는 펀드는 올초부터 현재까지 440억달러가 유출되었다, 즉 현금화가 이루어졌다. 지난 6주 중 5주동안 유출되었고 지난주에만 60억달러가 유출되었다. It doesn’t matter if you are a millionaire “on paper” today. What matters is if the money is going to be there when you really need it. At the moment, a whole lot of people have been lulled into a false sense of complacency by the soaring stock market and by the bubble of false economic stability that we have been enjoying. But under the surface, there is a whole lot of turmoil going on. Those that are looking for the signs are going to see the next crisis approaching well in advance. Those that are not are going to get absolutely blindsided by what is coming. Don’t let that happen to you. http://www.silverdoctors.com/5-charts-which-show-that-the-next-economic-crash-is-dead-ahead/ 출처; 달러와 금관련 경제소식들