2013년 50가지 대략적인 경제 예측???

2013년 50가지 대략적인 경제 예측???

 

당신은 야생의 2013년에 대한 준비가 되셨습니까? 그것은 매우 흥미로운 해가 될 것입니다. 캘린더가 매년 1 월 이상 넘겼을때, 많은 사람들이 목록을 많이만듭니다. 그들은 "해결방법"의 목록을 만들지만, 대부분의 사람들은 그들을 완수하지 않습니다. 그들은 "예측"의목록을 만들지만, 그 예측의 대부분은 항상 실패로 끝나는 것 같습니다. 글쎄, 난 2013년에대한 예측한 내 자신의 목록을 내쫒기로 결정했습니다.

솔직히 난 지금이 예측 모두가 옳지는 않다고 인정하고, 그것은 괜찮습니다. 다행스럽게도필자는 최소한 거기에 다른 탁상공론의 예언자 대부분 보다 더 정확한 것입니다. 나는 이시대의 나머지 부분은 미국 경제에 매우 혼란 될 것이란 생각 때문에, 미리보고 오는 내용을이해하도록 노력하는 것이 중요합니다. 우리가 지금 즐기고 있는 부채 위주의 나스닥 번영의 거짓 버블은 그리 오래가지 않을 것이다. 끝이될때, "조정"은 매우 고통스럽게 될 것입니다.

일어나고있고 준비하는걸 이해한 사람들은 막 우리를 치는것에(발생하는) 생존의 가장 좋은 기회가 될 것입니다. 솔직히 다른 사람들이 무슨 짓을할지 모릅니다. 접근해 오는 붕괴가 표시되지 않고 사람들의 대부분은 완전히 그것을 쓰러 뜨리게 될 것이고 무슨 일이 있었는지 알게되면 완전히 절망에 굴복하게 될것입니다. 오고있는것을 보지않는 것은 변명의 여지가 없습니다 - 징후가 어디에나 있습니다.

말이나왔으니 하는말인데, 다음은 2013년 50가지 굵은 예측은 ...

# 1 부채 천장을 높이는 이상으로 공화당과 민주당 사이의 주요 전투가 될 것입니다. 이것은 2 월과 3 월 달에 뉴스 헤드 라인을 지배하는 이야기 중 하나가 될 것입니다.

# 2 2013 년 세금 증가에 의해 자라게 될 것이다 새로운 "수익"의 대부분은 중산층의 주머니에서 나오는 것입니다.

# 3민주당과 공화당은 2013 년 "회계 거래"를 하더라도 연방 예산 적자는 여전히 5년 연속 1조달러보다 더 크게 끝나게됩니다.

# 4 미국 정부의 신용 등급은 2013 년 다시 강등됩니다.

# 5 연방 준비 은행은 도처의 주요 중앙 은행과 함께 격렬하게 돈인쇄를 계속할 것입니다.

# 6 1913 년에 다시 만들어진 이후 어느때보다도 2013 년 연방 준비에 더 많은 비판이있을 것입니다.

# 7 "통화 전쟁" 이란말은 2012 년있었던것 보다는 2013년에 더 많은 미디어에 의해 사용될것입니다.

# 8 세계의 주요 예비 통화로 미국 달러를 피하려는 움직임은 추진력을 강화될 것 입니다.이 기능은 특히 아시아에서 인정될 것 입니다.

# 9 그리스와 스페인의 경제 우울증은 더 악화되고 유로존의 실업률은 2013 년보다 높게이동할것입니다.

# 10 유럽의 금융 위기는 많은 분석가 놀라게 할 것이고 "급진적 인 해결책"을 해결하는데공식적인 원인이 될것이다.

# 11 미국의 실업률은 지금보다 2013 년 말까지 높게 될것입니다.

# 12 직업을가진 연령의 미국인 직업의 비율은 올해 말까지 58% 아래로 감소 할 것이다.

# 13 적어도"너무커서 실패할 수밖에 없는." 하나의은행은 2013 년 말까지 미국에서 실패할것입니다

# 14 올해말까지, 그 어느때보다 더 많은 사람들은 "파생 상품"은 무엇인지 이해하고, 사람들이 금융 세계에서 주요한 문제에 원인이었기 때문이다.

# 15 우리는 2013 년이 끝나기 전에 다른 주요 주택 위기의 시작을 볼 수 있을것이고 처분 활동은 다시 한번 상승하기 시작할것입니다.

# 16 연말 전에 전국 지역 사회에 가서 시작의 또 다른 새로운 "천막 도시"의 물결을 볼 수있습니다.

# 17 다가오는 여름에 미국의 다른 주요한 가뭄이 있을 것이고 다시 한번 널리 작물 실패가 있을 것입니다.

# 18 우리는 최근 몇 년 동안 피닉스 같은 도시를 구르는 거대한 먼지 폭풍은 더 크고 더강렬하게 될 것입니다.

# 19미시시피 강을 따라 교통이 상당히 2013년 동안 어느 시점에서 중단될것입니다. 이경제에 매우 부정적인 일이 될 것입니다.

# 20 식품 가격은 2013 년 비행을 할것입니다. 특히 육류 제품에 대한 사실일 것 입니다.

# 21 세계의 가난한 지역의 일부에서 주요 식량 폭동이 발생합니다. 정부는 시민들의 불안을 포함하는 문제일 것입니다.

# 22 그 어느 때보다도 더 우리의 슈퍼마켓에서 유전자 - 변형된 음식, 그리고 자신들을 거부하고 대안을 찾아보는 것보다 더 많은 미국인이 있을 것입니다.

# 23 2012 년 가솔린의 갤런의 평균 가격은 약 $ 3.60이었다. 2013 년 가솔린의 갤런의평균 가격은 보다 낮게 될것입니다. 예, 제대로 읽어보십시오.

# 24 미국에서 운전되는 차량 마일의 수는 2013 년 감소 할 것입니다.

# 25 다우 지수는 지금보다 2013년 현저하게 낮게 종료될것입니다.

# 26 2013년에 대한 최종 통계가 컴파일되면 세계 GDP의 미국 점유율은 현대 역사상 처음으로 20 % 이하가 될것입니다. 과거 2001 년에 세계 GDP 우리의 점유율은 31.8 %이었다.

# 27 미국 우편 서비스는 대규모 재정 어려움을 겪는 것을 계속할것이고 직원들을 해고할것입니다.

# 28 우리의 공립 학교에서 폭력은 점점 악화될때, 어느때보다 더 많은 미국인 가정은 가정학교에 자녀를 결정할것입니다

# 29 오바마 행정부와 의회의 민주당은 2013 년 총기(gun)의 통제 조치를 통과 할 수있는 모든 아웃의 시도를 할 것입니다.입법 전면에 자신의 노력이 하원에서 공화당에 의해 다소 지연될때, 오바마 대통령은 그의 총기을 제어 의제를 추가하여 그의 통치의힘을 사용합니다.

# 30 미국에서 가장 강력한 총기 법률,도시중하나인 시카고는, 2012 년 532개의 살인 사건이 있었는데 지금은 지구상에서 가장 위험한 도시 중 하나가 될 것으로 생각됩니다. 2013 년 말까지, 시카고에있는 살인은 총 600개 위가 될것입니다.

# 31 주 정부와 연방 정부 사이에 상당한 긴장이 증가하게 될 것입니다. "국가의 권리"의문제는 2013 년 여러 지점에서 가장중요한위치로 이동합니다.

# 32 CNN은 최저기록에 몸서리치고 가라앉는 것을 계속할 것입니다. 피어스 모건은 올해말 전에 네트워크를 떠나 종료됩니다.

# 33은 식품구입권 미국인의 수는 2013 년 동안 어떤 시점에서 최초로 50 만 달러를 능가합니다.

# 34 2013 년 중국과 미국의 무역 적자가 300 억 달러가 훨씬넘게 될 것입니다.

# 35 " made in China "글귀는 점점 미국인이 우리가 지난 10 년 동안 중국에 분실한 좋은 일자리 수백만에 대한 자세하게 교육이되면 제품을 구매하지 않는 이유로 볼 수 있을것입니다.

# 36 우리는 미국, 캐나다 및 멕시코와 국경 제한이 느슨해 될 것의 정부 간 협력 증가를볼 수 있을것입니다.

# 37 캘리포니아 주에서 가족과 기업의 질량 이동이 있을 것입니다.좋아하는 대상은 텍사스로 계속되지만, 텍사스 주민들은 새로운 이식의 모든 점점 분개될 것입니다.

# 38 몇 가지 정말 2013 년 자신의 자녀에 대해 부모가 폭력의 예로 턱뼈 – 떨어지게 될것입니다. 이이야기의 대부분은 모든 민족에 헤드 라인을 할 것입니다.

# 39 비만된 미국인의 비율은 상승을 계속할것이고 2013 년 또 다른 새로운 모든 기록을설정할것입니다.

# 40 2013 년 중동에서의 전쟁이 더있을 것입니다. 그러나 2014년과 2015 년 중동에서 더 많은 전쟁의 무대를 설정합니다.

# 41 미국 군대가 2013 년 이전보다 더 많은 국가에 배치 될 것입니다.

# 42 불의 고리(지진다발지역)를 따라 화산 폭발 및 주요 지진 2013 년 모든 세계를 통해헤드 라인을 할 것입니다.

# 43 거대한 sinkholes은 전세계 곳곳과 미국의 모든 땅에 나타나는 것을 계속할것입니다, 과학자는 발생하는 이유에 대한 설명을 찾는것에 노력을 계속할 것입니다.

# 44 2013 년 태양주기의 피크은 위성 통신을위한 중요한 문제에 원인이 될것입니다.

# 45 미국 정부는 그 어느 때보다 미국 사람들의 감시에 더 많은 자원을하게될것이고 하지만 더많은 보안으로 우리의 자유의 일부를 포기하는 것이 중요하다고 확신되기 때문에 대부분의 미국인이 감시 카메라의 모든 신경 쓰지 않을것입니다.

# 46 우리의 인프라 (도로, 교량, 터널, 공항, 하수구, 전기 격자 등) 지금보다 2013 년 말까지 악화될것입니다.

# 47 미국에서 "두 부모 세대"의 비율은 감소 할 것입니다.

# 48 "정치적 정확성는"2013 동안 우스꽝스런 새로운 차원에 도달하고, 그 어느 때보다도 더 많은 미국인은 반항하는 것을 시작할것입니다.

# 49 현대 역사에서 다른 어떤 시간에보다 2013 년 부자에 더 많은 분노가 있을 것입니다.

# 50 워싱턴 DC의 일부 충격적인 정치 스캔들이 2013 년에 있을 것입니다. 우리는 올해말까지 일부 높은 인물의 사임을 볼 수 있을것입니다.

다시 한번, 나는 이 모든 일이 100 %이루어지리라 기대하지 않는 점에 유의하시기 바랍니다. 나는 단지 다른 모든 사람들처럼 함께 퍼즐의 조각을 넣으려 노력하고 있습니다.

하지만 올해 초에 예측 목록을 넣어 다른 사람들의 대부분보다 더 나은 실적을 가지기를 기대합니다. 따라서 이 목록을 저장하고 올해 말에 그것을 다시 봅시다.

50 Bold Economic Predictions For 2013

Are you ready for a wild 2013? It should be a very interesting year. When the calendar flips over each January, lots of people make lots of lists. They make lists of “resolutions”, but most people never follow through on them. They make lists of “predictions”, but most of those predictions always seem to end up failing. Well, I have decided to put out my own list of predictions for 2013. I openly admit that I won’t get all of these predictions right, and that is okay. Hopefully I will at least be more accurate than most of the other armchair prognosticators out there. It is important to look ahead and try to get a handle on what is coming, because I believe that the rest of this decade is going to be extraordinarily chaotic for the U.S. economy. The false bubble of debt-fueled prosperity that we are enjoying right now is not going to last much longer. When it comes to an end, the “adjustment” is going to be extremely painful. Those that understand what is happening and have prepared for it will have the best chance of surviving what is about to hit us. I honestly don’t know what everybody else is going to do. Many of the people that don’t see the coming collapse approaching will be totally blindsided by it and will totally give in to despair when they realize what has happened. But there is no excuse for not seeing what is coming – the signs are everywhere.

So with that being said, the following are 50 bold predictions for 2013…

#1 There will be a major fight between the Republicans and the Democrats over raising the debt ceiling. This will be one of the stories that dominates news headlines in the months of February and March.

#2 Most of the new “revenue” that will be raised by tax increases in 2013 will come out of the pockets of the middle class.

#3 No matter what “fiscal deals” the Democrats and the Republicans make in 2013, the federal budget deficit will still end up being greater than a trillion dollars for the fifth consecutive year.

#4 The credit rating of the U.S. government will be downgraded again in 2013.

#5 The Federal Reserve, along with major central banks all over the globe, will continue to wildly print money.

#6 There will be more criticism of the Federal Reserve in 2013 than at any other time since it was created back in 1913.

#7 The term “currency war” will be used by the media more in 2013 than it was in 2012.

#8 The movement away from the U.S. dollar as the primary reserve currency of the world will pick up momentum. This will especially be true in Asia.

#9 The economic depressions in Greece and Spain will get even worse and unemployment in the eurozone will go even higher in 2013.

#10 A financial crisis in Europe will cause officials to grasp for “radical solutions” that will surprise many analysts.

#11 The unemployment rate in the United States will be higher by the end of 2013 than it is now.

#12 The percentage of working age Americans with a job will fall below 58 percent by the end of the year.

#13 At least one “too big to fail” bank will fail in the United States by the end of 2013.

#14 By the end of the year, more people than ever will understand what “derivatives” are, and that will be because they have caused major problems in the financial world.

#15 We will see the beginnings of another major housing crisis before the end of 2013 and foreclosure activity will start rising once again.

#16 We will see another new wave of “tent cities” start to go up in communities around the nation before the end of the year.

#17 There will be another major drought in the United States this upcoming summer and there will be widespread crop failures once again.

#18 The massive dust storms that we have seen roll through cities like Phoenix in recent years will become even larger and even more intense.

#19 Traffic along the Mississippi River will be significantly interrupted at some point during 2013. This will be a very negative thing for the economy.

#20 Food prices will soar in 2013. This will especially be true for meat products.

#21 In some of the poorer areas of the globe, major food riots will break out. Governments will have trouble containing the civil unrest.

#22 There will be more genetically-modified foods in our supermarkets than ever before, and more Americans than ever will reject them and will seek out alternatives.

#23 The average price of a gallon of gasoline in 2012 was about $3.60. The average price of a gallon of gasoline in 2013 will be lowerthan that. Yes, you read that correctly.

#24 The number of vehicle miles driven in the United States will continue to decline in 2013.

#25 The Dow will end 2013 significantly lower than it is right now.

#26 When the final statistics for 2013 are compiled, U.S. share of global GDP will be less than 20 percent for the first time in modern history. Back in the year 2001, our share of global GDP was 31.8 percent.

#27 The U.S. Postal Service will continue to experience massive financial difficulties and will lay off personnel.

#28 As violence in our public schools becomes increasingly worse, more Americans families than ever will decide to home school their children.

#29 The Obama administration and Democrats in Congress will make an all-out attempt to pass gun control measures in 2013. When their efforts on the legislative front are stalled somewhat by Republicans in the House, Obama will use his executive powers to further his gun control agenda.

#30 one of the cities with the strongest gun laws in the nation, Chicago, had 532 murders in 2012 and it is now considered to be one of the most dangerous cities on the planet. By the end of 2013, the murder total in Chicago will be above 600.

#31 There will be an increasing amount of tension between state governments and the federal government. The issue of “states rights” will move front and center at various points in 2013.

#32 CNN will continue to sink to horrifying new lows. Piers Morgan will end up leaving the network before the end of the year.

#33 The number of Americans on food stamps will surpass 50 million for the first time ever at some point during 2013.

#34 The U.S. trade deficit with China in 2013 will be well over 300 billion dollars.

#35 The phrase “made in China” will increasingly be viewed as a reason not to buy a product as Americans become more educated about the millions of good jobs that we have lost to China over the past decade.

#36 We will see increasing cooperation between the governments of the United States, Canada and Mexico and border restrictions will be loosened.

#37 There will continue to be a mass exodus of families and businesses out of the state of California. The favorite destination will continue to be Texas, but Texasresidents will become increasingly resentful of all of these new transplants.

#38 There will be some truly jaw-dropping examples of violence by parents against their own children in 2013. Many of these stories will make headlines all over the nation.

#39 The percentage of Americans that are obese will continue to rise and will set another new all-time record in 2013.

#40 There will be more war in the Middle East in 2013. But it will only set the stage for even more war in the Middle East in 2014 and 2015.

#41 U.S. troops will be deployed in more countries than ever before in 2013.

#42 Volcanic eruptions and major earthquakes along the Ring of Fire will make headlines all over the globe in 2013.

#43 Giant sinkholes will continue to appear all over the United States and all over the globe, and scientists will continue to struggle to find an explanation for why it is happening.

#44 The peak of the solar cycle in 2013 will cause significant problems for satellite communications.

#45 The U.S. government will put more resources into the surveillance of the American people than ever before, but most Americans won’t mind all of this surveillance because they have become convinced that it is important to give up some of our liberties for more “security”.

#46 Our infrastructure (roads, bridges, tunnels, airports, sewers, electrical grids, etc.) will be in worse shape by the end of 2013 than it is now.

#47 The percentage of “two parent households” in the United States will continue to decline.

#48 ”Political correctness” will reach ridiculous new heights during 2013, and more Americans than ever will start to rebel against it.

#49 There will be more anger at the wealthy in 2013 than at any other time in modern history.

#50 There will be some shocking political scandals in Washington D.C. in 2013. We will see some high profile resignations by the end of the year.

Once again, please keep in mind that I do not expect to be 100% correct about all of these things. I am just trying to put all of the pieces of the puzzle together just like everyone else is.

But I do hope to have a better track record than most of the other people putting out lists of predictions at the beginning of this year. So save this list and let’s revisit it at the end of the year.

출처 : 달러와 금관련 경제소식들 / giseg07