일본부채의 시한폭탄은18개월에서2년이내 폭발??

일본부채의 시한폭탄은18개월에서2년이내 폭발?

 제로 헤지 : 카일베이스,  

지금까지 경험한 바에 의하면, 일본 사람들은 지난 20 년 동안 경제적으로 자신의 나라에 무슨 일이 일어나고 있는지에 대해 너무 우둔하다고 본다

그들은 경제와 재정역할을 이해하지 못한다, 그래서 그들은 경제에 대해 판에 박힌 형태에만 집착한다. 네오 Keynesian과 시카고 대학이나 폴 크루그만같은 노벨상을 수상한 경제학자가 어떤 발언을 할지라도 그의 견해를 높게 평가한다.

그들은 디플레이션은 나쁘고 인플레이션은 좋다고 말하는 관료들의 말을 믿는다. 그 관료들이 후쿠시마 I 원자력 발전소 사고의 쓰레기뭉치를 대량으로 안겨주었다는 사실을 일본인들은 잊어버렸다. 그들은 엔화를 찍어내는 일본은행만큼이나 우둔하고 왜 찍어내는 돈이 부의 창조가 될 수 없는지도 모른다.

내 생각에 아직도 그들은 Marxian 경제학을 가르치는 나라의 대학에 기대하는 것 같다.

무엇이 언제 일본인들을 강타할지 모르지만 카일베이스는 2년 이내에 발생하거라고 본다. 마치 후쿠시마핵사고와 같이 그것은 예상을 훨씬 뛰어넘을 것이다. 그 사고는(일본붕괴) 일본을 돕거나 돕지 않을 황제인 미국으로 인해 발생할 것이다.

일본 주식 및 JPY의 하이퍼 상관 관계는 아베의 기적 같은 약속으로 인해 20년째의 경제침체에서 탈피할 수 있고 당신이 필요로 하는 2 %의 인플레 목표가 가능하다는 것을 믿게 한다.

 CNBC 인터뷰에서, 카일베이스는 하지만 아베의 행동으로 인해 99.9 %의 사람을 나쁘게 할 뿐만 아니라, 실은 일본의 부채 시한폭탄의 "폭발의 시점을 가져 왔다고 한다

('사상의 procylicality'20 년의 갑작스런 턴의 중요한 측면을 설명하는 - 그게 수축이 표준입니다)

일본 부채는 24x 중앙 정부 세금 주위에 있고 부실의 영역을 향해 항해 할 때 당신에게 도움이 되는 건 아무것도 없다 라고 베스는 경고한다.

특정한 날짜 사이클, 즉 70 년 채무의 끝을 원하는 것은 순진하다, 그는 '2 년에서 18 개월 이내에 폭탄은 폭발한다고 본다.

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  Zero Hedge: "Detonating the Japanese Debt Time Bomb" With Kyle Bass

SATURDAY, JANUARY 19, 2013

Zero Hedge: "Detonating the Japanese Debt Time Bomb" With Kyle Bass

From what I have seen so far, the Japanese people are clueless about what's been going on in their own country economically for the past 20 years. Because they don't understand how economy and finance work, so they cling on to the economic cliche -

Because they don't understand how economy and finance work, so they cling on to the economic cliche

neo-Keynesian this and that, Chicago School this and that, and highly respect Nobel Prize-winning economists like Paul Krugman whenever he utters anything.

They truly believe the official line that deflation is bad and inflation is good, completely forgetting what their government feeds you is a bunch of garbage (figuratively and literally), as the Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant accident has abundantly shown them (I hope, but hope has become a dirty word).

They are clueless as to how Bank of Japan prints money, and why printing paper money is not creation of wealth. I suppose that is to be expected from a country where they still teach Marxian economics in universities.

.They will never know what hits them when it hits them, which Kyle Bass seems to think will happen within 2 years.

Just like the Fukushima nuke accident, it will be "beyond expectation". And just like the Fukushima nuke accident, it will be because of the imperial US's fault for causing it and/or not helping Japan (well, there's some truth to that, I guess, at least the former).

From Zero Hedge's Tyler Durden (1/18/2013; emphasis is original):

"Detonating The Japanese Debt Time Bomb" With Kyle Bass

The hyper-correlation of Japanese stocks and the JPY have led many to believe that Abe's miracle promise will be just the ticket to bring the nation's two-decade slump to an end - a 2% inflation target is all you need. However, in a brief CNBC interview, Kyle Bass explains that not only are 99.9% of people wrong about the crisis (explaining the critical aspect of the abrupt turn of twenty years of the 'procylicality of thought' - that deflation is the norm), but Abe's actions have actually brought forward the date of the "detonation of Japan's Debt Time Bomb.

It is the Japanese institutions that own JGBs and they own them at meager rates of interest simply because of the ingrained belief in deflation; when the government begins to target 2% inflation, the swing in forward expectations (he notes to monitor inflation swap breakevens) will be the trigger for Japan's implosion.

Bass warns that "Japanese debt is around 24x central government tax revenue and when you sail into the zone of insolvency, nothing you can do will help," though he realizes

that calling the end of the 70-year debt super-cyle to a specific date is naive, he does expect the 'bomb' to explode within 18 month to two years.

All of the components for this [bomb] to go off 'all of a sudden' are in place. The clock has started on the qualitative shift in participants' minds that the situation is untenable as the realization that Japan spends 25% of revenue on interest now - and with higher rates (via this supposed inflation) the entire situation becomes farcical as every 1% rise in their cost of capital (or rates) costs them another 25% of revenue!.

On JPY devaluation - The signs are already there that elites are exiting the JPY - with recent M&A transactions - he warns. 20% of exports go to China; this could be halved given the tensions, and a JPY devaluation is not going to restore the competitiveness of that secular decline.

On Japanese stocks - The people buying Japanese stocks, are picking up dimes in front of a bulldozer.

Bass goes on to discuss the US Housing stabilization, European stress, and China's economic opacity.